On 3rd March 2026, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the Spring Statement. There were no new housing measures, no stamp duty changes and nothing that made immediate headlines for buyers or sellers. But published alongside it was the Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest five-year economic forecast — and for anyone thinking about moving in the Wigan area, there’s plenty worth knowing.
Here’s what stands out.
Transactions Were Up in 2025 — But Don’t Read Too Much Into It
Residential property transactions rose by nearly 11% in 2025, reaching 1.2 million completions — the highest level since 2022. Encouraging on the surface, but the OBR is clear about why it happened: buyers rushed to beat the stamp duty deadline in April 2025, and the Autumn Budget generated further short-term activity. It wasn’t surging demand — buyers simply moved sooner than they otherwise would have.
Looking ahead, the OBR expects steady growth of around 2.5% a year, reaching 1.3 million completions by 2030. Solid, but not spectacular.
House Prices: Slow, Steady and Unlikely to Fall
Price growth is forecast to average just over 2.5% a year nationally — around 2.0% in 2025–26, rising to 2.9% in 2027–28 before easing back slightly by 2030. Cumulative growth of 16.4% by 2030–31 would take the average UK house price from around £270,000 today to approximately £314,500.
This forecast is virtually unchanged from November 2025, which tells its own story. The market is finding a stable level — not heading for a crash, but not about to accelerate sharply either. For anyone waiting for prices to drop before buying, the OBR’s view offers little encouragement.
Mortgage Rates: More Encouraging Than Expected
The clearest positive in this report for buyers and homeowners is that mortgage rate forecasts have been revised downwards since November. Bank Rate is now expected to fall to 3.4% in 2026–27, and the average effective mortgage rate over the forecast period is now 0.3 percentage points lower than predicted just four months ago.
Rates aren’t returning to the historic lows of the 2010s, but the direction of travel is more favourable than it looked at the end of last year.
One important caveat: the OBR finalised its numbers before the most recent escalation in the Middle East, which caused sharp movements in bond markets almost immediately after publication. The medium-term outlook remains more positive than six months ago, but anyone making decisions based on current mortgage rates should take up-to-date advice before committing.
Supply Is Tighter Than You Might Think
Net additions to the UK housing stock are forecast to fall to around 220,000 homes in 2026–27, down from 260,000 in the early 2020s, as a period of subdued building starts feeds through into fewer completions. Government planning reforms are expected to push that figure back above 305,000 by 2030–31 — but the OBR acknowledges those reforms haven’t yet shown up meaningfully in actual building data.
For buyers, 2026 and 2027 are shaping up to be years of constrained supply. That means more competition for available homes, particularly in markets where stock is already limited.
One Risk Worth Watching
Unemployment is forecast to rise from 4.8% in 2025 to 5.3% in 2026 before falling back from 2027. That’s not a crisis figure, but it’s a real headwind. When employment softens, lenders tighten criteria and households delay big decisions. The improving picture on borrowing costs needs to be read alongside that risk, not instead of it.
The Bottom Line
The OBR’s forecast points to a market finding its footing — gradual price growth, easing mortgage costs and steady transaction volumes — but with supply tight in the near term and some economic uncertainty to navigate.
For buyers, the case for acting sooner rather than later is strengthened by the supply constraints expected through 2026 and 2027. For sellers, consistent price growth is working in your favour, even if a dramatic uplift isn’t on the horizon.
If you’d like to talk through what this means for your own situation, the Alan Batt team are always happy to help. Give us a call or pop into our Wigan office.