Budget Uncertainty – But the Market Keeps Moving
October saw Rachel Reeves in the headlines regarding her rental property licensing issues, adding to three consecutive months of political uncertainty affecting the housing market. Despite this, the question remains: has the property market slowed before the Autumn Budget, or is it continuing to perform as usual?
Year-to-Date Market Performance
The market has shown mixed signals through January to October 2025:
Strong Points:
- Properties for sale have increased by 7% year-on-year, with new listings up 3.3%
- Sales agreed are up 4.4% – buyers are still active despite everything
- Agreed sale prices per square foot rose 1.5% to £343
- Mortgage affordability has improved significantly, giving buyers a 20% boost in borrowing capacity
Key Challenges:
- Price reductions have increased 12.1% year-on-year – nearly 39% of all sales in 2025 have had at least one price reduction
- Properties are taking longer to sell, averaging 77 days to find a buyer (6 days longer than 2024)
- Fall-throughs jumped 7%, likely due to wider choice and uncertainty
October’s Market Snapshot
October data shows a market moving at a slightly slower pace. Whilst new listings were down compared to September, sales agreed rose 5.37% month-on-month, indicating that committed buyers remain active when they see value for money.
Key October metrics:
- Withdrawals dropped 38.1% to their lowest level since December 2022, suggesting sellers are being more realistic with pricing
- Fall-throughs declined 4.9% – buyers and sellers remain committed to moving
- The average time from listing to completion is now over 200 days, meaning anyone listing now should expect to complete around May 2026
Mortgage Market Update
Mortgage approvals increased to 65,900 in September, the best month since January. The effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages decreased to 4.19%, the lowest since January 2023.
Following September’s inflation figure of 3.8% (below the Bank of England’s forecast of 4%), major lenders responded quickly. Santander, NatWest, Barclays, and HSBC all trimmed their fixed rates by up to 0.36 percentage points within a week.
Current mortgage rates:
- The average two-year fixed rate has fallen from 5.40% in October 2024 to 4.98% now
- The lowest two-year fixed rates are currently around 3.67%
- Someone who locked into a two-year fixed deal in October 2023 would be saving £225 per month on a £250,000 mortgage compared to today’s rates
Mortgage affordability has improved significantly, and buying with a 5% deposit is now cheaper than renting in most major cities.
First-Time Buyers
We’re particularly excited about the opportunities for first-time buyers right now. This is a group close to our hearts at Alan Batt Sales & Lettings.
- Nationwide’s increase of its borrowing limit to six times income has led to a 53% rise in first-time buyers using its Helping Hand mortgage
- First-time buyers account for 39% of all sales and 49% of all new mortgages
- The average first-time buyer home is now worth £229,000
- Mortgage affordability improvements have delivered a 30% increase in first-time buyer mortgages between H1 2024 and H1 2025
We’ve been working with several first-time buyers recently, and whilst the market feels more competitive, the improved mortgage products and lower rates are making home ownership feel achievable again.
What About Interest Rates?
The Bank of England meets on Thursday 6th November. Will they cut rates again?
Market pricing suggests around a 40% chance of a quarter-point cut in November. Most economists expect rates to stay at 4% in November, with the next cut likely in February 2026. The Bank wants to see what’s in the budget on 26th November before making their next move.
Looking ahead:
- HSBC predicts the base rate will fall to 3% by the end of 2026
- Most economists expect rates at 3.75% by March 2026
- The consensus is for continued, measured rate cuts throughout 2026
For our clients, this means mortgage rates should continue their gradual downward trend, making affordability continue to improve through next year.
Buy-to-Let Landlords – Some Better News
We work with many landlords in the Wigan area, and we know it’s been challenging. However, there are some positive signs:
- Average gross rental yields climbed to 7.26%, up from 6.9% a year earlier
- The average interest rate on new buy-to-let loans is down to 5%
- For limited company purchases, the average two-year fixed rate is now 5.04%, down from 6.53% in October 2023
- There are now 1,730 fixed-rate deals available for limited company purchases, up from 841 in October 2023
The combination of improving yields, falling borrowing costs, and increased product choice suggests the buy-to-let market is becoming more viable again.
House Prices – Where Are We Now?
According to the latest UK House Price Index, the average UK property stands at £273,000, up 0.8% month-on-month and 3% annually.
The major indices show:
- Nationwide: Annual growth at 2.4%
- Halifax: Annual growth at 1.3%
- Zoopla: Growth at 1.3% annually
What we’re telling our sellers is that getting the price right from the start has never been more important. With more properties available and buyers having greater choice, overpricing will simply result in longer market times and price reductions later.
Local Market Insights from Our Wigan Office
Whilst the national data gives us the big picture, what really matters to our clients is what’s happening right here in Wigan and the surrounding areas like Standish, Shevington, Appley Bridge, and the WN6 postcode area.
We’re seeing:
- Strong continued interest in family homes, particularly in good school catchment areas
- Buyers being selective but still committed when they find the right property
- Properties that are well-presented and realistically priced are selling within reasonable timeframes
- First-time buyers remaining active, especially for properties under £300,000
- Downsizers and landlords bringing more properties to market, providing good choice
What’s Coming Next?
All eyes are on the Autumn Budget on 26th November. There’s been speculation about potential changes to stamp duty, council tax bands, and capital gains tax on higher-value properties.
Our advice to clients has been consistent: don’t let speculation paralise you. If you’ve found the right property at the right price, or if you need to sell for personal reasons, the fundamentals shouldn’t change based on what might or might not happen in the budget.
That said, we understand why some buyers and sellers are taking a “wait and see” approach, particularly for properties over £500,000.
Our Predictions for the Rest of 2025
Based on everything we’re seeing and the expert forecasts we monitor:
- Transaction levels will remain broadly similar to 2024, potentially reaching 1.15-1.2 million for the year
- House price growth will finish the year between 1% and 1.5%
- The market will remain active but cautious until budget clarity arrives
- Mortgage rates should continue their gradual decline into 2026
- Well-priced properties will continue to sell, whilst overpriced homes will struggle
- First-time buyers will remain the most active buyer group
Our Final Thoughts
October 2025 has shown us a property market characterised by resilience tempered by caution. Here at Alan Batt Sales & Lettings, we remain cautiously optimistic about the market’s direction.
Yes, there are challenges – affordability pressures, budget uncertainty, and longer transaction times. But there are also real positives – improving mortgage rates, strong buyer demand from first-time buyers, and a market that continues to function effectively.
The market has adapted rather than accelerated, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. A steadier, more measured market often produces better outcomes than the boom-and-bust cycles we’ve seen in the past.
For our clients considering buying or selling, our message is simple: work with professionals who understand the local market, price realistically, present your property well, and be patient but proactive. The opportunities are there for those who approach the market with the right strategy.
How We Can Help
Whether you’re a first-time buyer wondering if now is the right time, a seller concerned about market conditions, a landlord reviewing your portfolio, or simply curious about property values in your area, Alan, Luke, and the whole team are here to help.
We offer:
- Free, no-obligation property valuations
- Expert local market knowledge spanning Wigan, Standish, Shevington, Appley Bridge, and surrounding areas
- Professional marketing that gets your property seen by the right buyers
- Honest, straightforward advice based on real market data
- Support throughout the entire buying or selling process
Get in touch with us today to discuss your property needs. You can request a valuation through our website at alanbatt.co.uk.
Alan Batt Sales & Lettings – Your Local Property Experts